Commentaries on health services research

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

1-1-2015

Journal

Journal of the American Academy of Physician Assistants

Volume

28

Issue

7

DOI

10.1097/01.JAA.0000467188.66664.b9

Abstract

Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Physician Assistants. Computer modeling was used to assess the pediatric NP workforce and to investigate the effect of potential policy changes to address forecasted shortages. Modeling included the admission of students into nursing bachelor's programs and followed them through advanced clinical programs. Prediction models were combined with optimal decisionmaking to determine best-case scenario admission levels. Two measures were computed: (1) the absolute shortage and (2) the expected number of years until the pediatric NP workforce will be able to fully satisfy pediatric NP demand (self-sufficiency). A shortage of pediatric NPs is predicted over the next 13 years. Under the best-case scenario, at least 13 years are needed for the workforce to fully satisfy demand. Analysis of potential policy changes revealed that increasing the specialization rate for pediatric NPs and increasing the certification examination passing rate to 96% would lead to self-sufficiency in 11 years. In addition, increasing the annual growth rate of master's programs to 36% from the current maximum of 10.7% would result in self-sufficiency in 5 years. Forecasts of demand for pediatric NPs indicate that the current workforce will be incapable of satisfying the growing demand.1.

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