A nomogram of predicting of recurrence of ovarian endometrioma after surgery for a 5-year follow-up

Authors

• Yayun Zhang, Department of Gynecology, the Affiliated Suzhou Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Suzhou Municipal Hospital, Gusu School, 26 Daoqian Street, Gusu Strict, Suzhou, Jiangsu 215002, China.
• Yan Zhang, Department of Gynecology, the Affiliated Suzhou Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Suzhou Municipal Hospital, Gusu School, 26 Daoqian Street, Gusu Strict, Suzhou, Jiangsu 215002, China.
• Meng Liu, Department of Gynecology, the Affiliated Suzhou Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Suzhou Municipal Hospital, Gusu School, 26 Daoqian Street, Gusu Strict, Suzhou, Jiangsu 215002, China.
• Zihan Zhao, George Washington University, Milken Institute School of Public Health, 950 New Hampshire Ave NW, Washington, D.C. 20052, United States.
• Tianyue Cao, Department of Gynecology, the Affiliated Suzhou Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Suzhou Municipal Hospital, Gusu School, 26 Daoqian Street, Gusu Strict, Suzhou, Jiangsu 215002, China.
• Shunyu Hou, Department of Gynecology, the Affiliated Suzhou Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Suzhou Municipal Hospital, Gusu School, 26 Daoqian Street, Gusu Strict, Suzhou, Jiangsu 215002, China.
• Aifen Wang, Department of Gynecology, Jiangnan University Medical Center, 68 Zhongshan Road, Liangxi Strict, Wuxi, Jiangsu 214002, China. Electronic address: [email protected].

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

3-14-2026

Journal

European journal of obstetrics, gynecology, and reproductive biology

Volume

321

DOI

10.1016/j.ejogrb.2026.115073

Keywords

Nomogram; Ovarianendometrioma; Prediction; Recurrence; Risk factors

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: There is currently no consensus on the risk factors for recurrent ovarian endometrioma after surgery. This study aimed to identify independent risk factors and develop a clinical nomogram to predict postoperative recurrence. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted on 589 patients who underwent ovarian endometrioma excision at a tertiary institute between March 2013 and December 2018. Clinical variables were compared between patients with and without recurrence using logistic multiple regression analysis to identify independent predictors. A nomogram was subsequently constructed and validated. RESULTS: Of the 589 patients, 82 (13.92%) experienced recurrence. Multivariate analysis identified five independent risk factors: younger age at surgery, longer duration of menstruation, higher dysmenorrhea severity (VRS-5 scores), larger endometrioma diameter, and fewer postoperative deliveries (p < 0.05). Based on these factors, a nomogram was developed, yielding an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.703 in the development cohort and 0.719 in the validation cohort. Calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA) demonstrated the model's good fit and clinical net benefit. CONCLUSION: Younger age, menstruation duration, dysmenorrhea severity, cyst diameter, and postoperative deliveries are key determinants of recurrence. The novel nomogram serves as a practical tool for clinicians to estimate risk and personalize postoperative management.

APA Citation

Zhang, Yayun; Zhang, Yan; Liu, Meng; Zhao, Zihan; Cao, Tianyue; Hou, Shunyu; and Wang, Aifen, "A nomogram of predicting of recurrence of ovarian endometrioma after surgery for a 5-year follow-up" (2026). GW Authored Works. Paper 8876.
https://hsrc.himmelfarb.gwu.edu/gwhpubs/8876

Department

Public Health Student Works