Development and validation of a risk calculator for postoperative diplopia following orbital fracture repair in adults

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

2-13-2024

Journal

Scientific reports

Volume

14

Issue

1

DOI

10.1038/s41598-024-54121-w

Abstract

Postoperative diplopia is the most common complication following orbital fracture repair (OFR). Existing evidence on its risk factors is based on single-institution studies and small sample sizes. Our study is the first multi-center study to develop and validate a risk calculator for the prediction of postoperative diplopia following OFR. We reviewed trauma patients who underwent OFR at two high-volume trauma centers (2015-2019). Excluded were patients < 18 years old and those with postoperative follow-up < 2 weeks. Our primary outcome was incidence/persistence of postoperative diplopia at ≥ 2 weeks. A risk model for the prediction of postoperative diplopia was derived using a development dataset (70% of population) and validated using a validation dataset (remaining 30%). The C-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests were used to assess the risk model accuracy. A total of n = 254 adults were analyzed. The factors that predicted postoperative diplopia were: age at injury, preoperative enophthalmos, fracture size/displacement, surgical timing, globe/soft tissue repair, and medial wall involvement. Our predictive model had excellent discrimination (C-statistic = 80.4%), calibration (P = 0.2), and validation (C-statistic = 80%). Our model rules out postoperative diplopia with a 100% sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV) for a probability < 8.9%. Our predictive model rules out postoperative diplopia with an 87.9% sensitivity and a 95.8% NPV for a probability < 13.4%. We designed the first validated risk calculator that can be used as a powerful screening tool to rule out postoperative diplopia following OFR in adults.

Department

School of Medicine and Health Sciences Resident Works

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