COVID-19 perturbation on US air quality and human health impact assessment

Jian He, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.
Colin Harkins, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.
Katelyn O'Dell, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052, USA.
Meng Li, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.
Colby Francoeur, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.
Kenneth C. Aikin, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.
Susan Anenberg, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052, USA.
Barry Baker, NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, USA.
Steven S. Brown, NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305, USA.
Matthew M. Coggon, NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305, USA.
Gregory J. Frost, NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305, USA.
Jessica B. Gilman, NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305, USA.
Shobha Kondragunta, NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, Center for Satellite Applications and Research, College Park, MD 20740, USA.
Aaron Lamplugh, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.
Congmeng Lyu, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.
Zachary Moon, NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, USA.
Bradley R. Pierce, Space Science and Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
Rebecca H. Schwantes, NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305, USA.
Chelsea E. Stockwell, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.
Carsten Warneke, NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305, USA.
Kai Yang, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.
Caroline R. Nowlan, Center for Astrophysics, Harvard and Smithsonian, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
Gonzalo González Abad, Center for Astrophysics, Harvard and Smithsonian, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
Brian C. McDonald, NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305, USA.

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

1-1-2024

Journal

PNAS nexus

Volume

3

Issue

1

DOI

10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad483

Keywords

COVID-19; air quality; emission inventory; health impacts

Abstract

The COVID-19 stay-at-home orders issued in the United States caused significant reductions in traffic and economic activities. To understand the pandemic's perturbations on US emissions and impacts on urban air quality, we developed near-real-time bottom-up emission inventories based on publicly available energy and economic datasets, simulated the emission changes in a chemical transport model, and evaluated air quality impacts against various observations. The COVID-19 pandemic affected US emissions across broad-based energy and economic sectors and the impacts persisted to 2021. Compared with 2019 business-as-usual emission scenario, COVID-19 perturbations resulted in annual decreases of 10-15% in emissions of ozone (O) and fine particle (PM) gas-phase precursors, which are about two to four times larger than long-term annual trends during 2010-2019. While significant COVID-induced reductions in transportation and industrial activities, particularly in April-June 2020, resulted in overall national decreases in air pollutants, meteorological variability across the nation led to local increases or decreases of air pollutants, and mixed air quality changes across the United States between 2019 and 2020. Over a full year (April 2020 to March 2021), COVID-induced emission reductions led to 3-4% decreases in national population-weighted annual fourth maximum of daily maximum 8-h average O and annual PM. Assuming these emission reductions could be maintained in the future, the result would be a 4-5% decrease in premature mortality attributable to ambient air pollution, suggesting that continued efforts to mitigate gaseous pollutants from anthropogenic sources can further protect human health from air pollution in the future.

Department

Environmental and Occupational Health

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