Global Health Impacts for Economic Models of Climate Change: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Kevin R. Cromar, New York University, 5894, Marron Institute of Urban Management, New York, New York, United States.
Susan C. Anenberg, The George Washington University, 8367, Milken School of Public Health, Washington, District of Columbia, United States.
John R. Balmes, University of California, Berkeley, Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Berkeley, California, United States.
Allen A. Fawcett, US Environmental Protection Agency, 1260, Washington, District of Columbia, United States.
Marya Ghazipura, New York University School of Medicine, New York, New York, United States.
Julia M. Gohlke, Virginia Tech, 1757, Department of Population Health Sciences, Blacksburg, Virginia, United States.
Masahiro Hashizume, The University of Tokyo, 13143, Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan.
Peter Howard, New York University Law School, 25982, Institute for Policy Integrity, New York, New York, United States.
Eric Lavigne, Health Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
Karen Levy, University of Washington School of Public Health, 49462, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, Seattle, Washington, United States.
Jaime Madrigano, RAND Corp Washington Office, 331135, Arlington, Virginia, United States.
Jeremy A. Martinich, US Environmental Protection Agency, 1260, Washington, District of Columbia, United States.
Erin A. Mordecai, Stanford University, 6429, Biology Department, Stanford, California, United States.
Mary B. Rice, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts, United States.
Shubhayu Saha, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1242, National Center for Environmental Health, Atlanta, Georgia, United States.
Noah C. Scovronick, Rollins School of Public Health, 25798, Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Atlanta, Georgia, United States.
Fatih Sekercioglu, Ryerson University, 7984, School of Occupational and Public Health, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Erik R. Svendsen, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1242, National Center for Environmental Health, Atlanta, Georgia, United States.
Benjamin F. Zaitchik, Johns Hopkins University, 1466, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Baltimore, Maryland, United States.
Gary Ewart, American Thoracic Society, Government Relations, Washington, District of Columbia, United States.

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

1-24-2022

Journal

Annals of the American Thoracic Society

DOI

10.1513/AnnalsATS.202110-1193OC

Abstract

RATIONALE: Avoiding excess health damages attributable to climate change is a primary motivator for policy interventions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, the health benefits of climate mitigation, as included in the policy assessment process, have been estimated without much input from health experts. OBJECTIVES: In accordance with recommendations from the National Academies in a 2017 report on approaches to update the social cost of greenhouse gases (SC-GHG), an expert panel of 26 health researchers and climate economists gathered for a virtual technical workshop in May 2021 to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis and recommend improvements to the estimation of health impacts in economic-climate models. METHODS: Regionally-resolved effect estimates of unit increases in temperature on net all-cause mortality risk were generated through random-effects pooling of studies identified through a systematic review. RESULTS: Effect estimates, and associated uncertainties, varied by global region, but net increases in mortality risk associated with increased average annual temperatures (ranging from 0.1-1.1% per 1 degree C) was estimated for all global regions. Key recommendations for the development and utilization of health damage modules were provided by the expert panel, and include: not relying on individual methodologies in estimating health damages; incorporating a broader range of cause-specific mortality impacts; improving the climate parameters available in economic models; accounting for socio-economic trajectories and adaptation factors when estimating health damages; and carefully considering how air pollution impacts should be incorporated in economic-climate models. CONCLUSIONS: This work provides an example for how subject-matter experts can work alongside climate economists in making continued improvements to SC-GHG estimates.

Department

Environmental and Occupational Health

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