Predicting sepsis mortality into an era of pandrug-resistant E. coli through modeling

Authors

Benjamin J. Koch, Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA. ben.koch@nau.edu.
Daniel E. Park, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA.
Bruce A. Hungate, Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA.
Cindy M. Liu, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA.
James R. Johnson, Minneapolis Veterans Affairs Health Care System, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Lance B. Price, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA.

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

12-26-2024

Journal

Communications medicine

Volume

4

Issue

1

DOI

10.1038/s43856-024-00693-7

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Infections caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria are increasingly frequent, burdening healthcare systems worldwide. As pathogens acquire resistance to all known antibiotics - i.e., become pan-resistant - treatment of the associated infections will become exceedingly difficult. We hypothesized that the emergence of pan-resistant bacterial pathogens will result in a sharp increase in human mortality. METHODS: We tested this hypothesis by modeling the impact of a single hypothetical pan-resistant Escherichia coli strain on sepsis deaths in the United States. We used long-term data on sepsis incidence, mortality rates, strain dynamics, and treatment outcomes to parameterize a set of models encompassing a range of plausible future scenarios. All models accounted for historical and projected temporal changes in population size and age distribution. RESULTS: The models suggest that sepsis deaths could increase 18- to 46-fold within 5 years of the emergence of a single pan-resistant E. coli strain. This large and rapid change contrasts sharply with the current expectation of gradual change under continuing multidrug-resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Failure to prevent the emergence of pan-resistance would have dire consequences for public health.

APA Citation

Koch, Benjamin J.; Park, Daniel E.; Hungate, Bruce A.; Liu, Cindy M.; Johnson, James R.; and Price, Lance B., "Predicting sepsis mortality into an era of pandrug-resistant E. coli through modeling" (2024). GW Authored Works. Paper 6099.
https://hsrc.himmelfarb.gwu.edu/gwhpubs/6099

Department

Environmental and Occupational Health