Predicting the number of COVID-19 infections and deaths in USA

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date



Globalization and health








2019 novel coronavirus; COVID-19; Infection density; Infection entropy; SARS-CoV-2


BACKGROUND: Uncertainties surrounding the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) remain a major global health challenge and requires attention. Researchers and medical experts have made remarkable efforts to reduce the number of cases and prevent future outbreaks through vaccines and other measures. However, there is little evidence on how severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection entropy can be applied in predicting the possible number of infections and deaths. In addition, more studies on how the COVID-19 infection density contributes to the rise in infections are needed. This study demonstrates how the SARS-COV-2 daily infection entropy can be applied in predicting the number of infections within a given period. In addition, the infection density within a given population attributes to an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases and, consequently, the new variants. RESULTS: Using the COVID-19 initial data reported by Johns Hopkins University, World Health Organization (WHO) and Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID), the result shows that the original SAR-COV-2 strain has R<1 with an initial infection growth rate entropy of 9.11 bits for the United States (U.S.). At close proximity, the average infection time for an infected individual to infect others within a susceptible population is approximately 7 minutes. Assuming no vaccines were available, in the U.S., the number of infections could range between 41,220,199 and 82,440,398 in late March 2022 with approximately, 1,211,036 deaths. However, with the available vaccines, nearly 48 Million COVID-19 cases and 706, 437 deaths have been prevented. CONCLUSION: The proposed technique will contribute to the ongoing investigation of the COVID-19 pandemic and a blueprint to address the uncertainties surrounding the pandemic.


Prevention and Community Health