A Source Apportionment and Emission Scenario Assessment of PM- and O-Related Health Impacts in G20 Countries

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Journal Article

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G20; O3; PM2.5; adjoint; modeling; source


Exposure to air pollution is a leading risk factor for premature death globally; however, the complexity of its formation and the diversity of its sources can make it difficult to address. The Group of Twenty (G20) countries are a collection of the world's largest and most influential economies and are uniquely poised to take action to reduce the global health burden associated with air pollution. We present a framework capable of simultaneously identifying regional and sectoral sources of the health impacts associated with two air pollutants, fine particulate matter (PM) and ozone (O) in G20 countries; this framework is also used to assess the health impacts associated with emission reductions. This approach combines GEOS-Chem adjoint sensitivities, satellite-derived data, and a new framework designed to better characterize the non-linear relationship between O exposures and nitrogen oxides emissions. From this approach, we estimate that a 50% reduction of land transportation emissions by 2040 would result in 251 thousand premature deaths avoided in G20 countries. These premature deaths would be attributable equally to reductions in PM and O exposure which make up 51% and 49% of the potential benefits, respectively. In our second application, we estimate that the energy generation related co-benefits associated with G20 countries staying on pace with their net-zero carbon dioxide targets would be 290 thousand premature deaths avoided in 2040; action by India (47%) would result in the most benefits of any country and a majority of these avoided deaths would be attributable to reductions in PM exposure (68%).


Environmental and Occupational Health