Predicting the incidence of depression in adolescence using a sociodemographic risk score: prospective follow-up of the IDEA-RiSCo study

Jader Piccin, Department of Psychiatry, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil.
Claudia Buchweitz, Department of Psychiatry, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil.
Pedro H. Manfro, Department of Psychiatry, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil.
Rivka Barros Pereira, Department of Psychiatry, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil.
Fernanda Rohrsetzer, Department of Psychiatry, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil.
Laila Souza, Department of Psychiatry, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil.
Anna Viduani, Department of Psychiatry, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil.
Arthur Caye, Department of Psychiatry, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil.
Brandon A. Kohrt, Center for Global Mental Health Equity, Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Health, School of Medicine and Health Sciences, The George Washington University, Washington, District of Columbia, USA.
Valeria Mondelli, Department of Psychological Medicine, King's College London, Institute of Psychiatry Psychology & Neuroscience, London, UK.
Johnna R. Swartz, Department of Human Ecology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, USA.
Helen L. Fisher, Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre, King's College London, Institute of Psychiatry Psychology & Neuroscience, London, UK helen.2.fisher@kcl.ac.uk.
Christian Kieling, Department of Psychiatry, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil.

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

4-12-2025

Journal

BMJ mental health

Volume

28

Issue

1

DOI

10.1136/bmjment-2024-301207

Keywords

Child & adolescent psychiatry; Depression; Depression & mood disorders

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Adolescence constitutes a critical window for preventing depression, but efforts have mostly targeted single risk factors. The Identifying Depression Early in Adolescence Risk Score (IDEA-RS) integrates easily obtainable sociodemographic variables and has been able to predict future depression across diverse populations. However, its performance within a prospective cohort remains untested. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of the IDEA-RS in a prospective sample of adolescents participating in the IDEA Risk Stratified Cohort. METHODS: Using the IDEA-RS, we screened 7720 adolescents aged 14-16 years in 101 public schools in Porto Alegre, Brazil, and recruited 50 low-risk (LR) and 50 high-risk (HR) participants without depression. The incidence of depressive disorders over 3 years was assessed using the Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia for School-Age Children. Statistical analysis involved Poisson regression with robust variance to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for depression onset. FINDINGS: In the HR group, 14/45 developed depression, in comparison to 5/43 in the LR group. Poisson regression analysis confirmed a higher probability of developing depression in the HR group compared with the LR group (IRR of 2.68, 95% CI 1.05 to 6.79, p=0.04). CONCLUSION: In a prospective cohort of Brazilian adolescents, the IDEA-RS effectively distinguished between those at HR and LR for developing depression. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: These results support the usefulness of an easy-to-administer sociodemographic composite risk score for stratifying the probability of developing depression among adolescents, a promising tool to be used in a variety of global contexts, including resource-limited settings.

Department

Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences

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